- REFF forecasts significantly outperform the consensus forecasts in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE)
- Furthermore, the shape of the forecasted graphs are much more indicative of the reported values in direction and timeliness
- While the model has been thoroughly back-tested with out-of-sample data, live results are typically better and undergo continuous improvement
- US PCE price index: 69% better than Bloomberg consensus
- US gross domestic product (GDP): 12% better than Bloomberg consensus
| Growth of YoY US PCE price index | Growth of YoY US gross domestic product | |
|---|---|---|
| Our RMSE | 0.388 |
0.686 |
| Consensus RMSE | 0.656 | 0.769 |